Biden as the VP pick has sparked some interesting conversations surrounding campaign narratives and how the "story" factors in to the presidential race. Just like business, having a quality story is central to the 'sale'.McCain's is obvious. He was a POW that turned down early release because it was based on who his father was and not how long he had been a prisoner. It's been echoed so many times in so many different ways that there's probably no one left in the world who doesn't know it. Mix that with "Straight Talk," and you've got a solid pitch.
Obama's is one "that can only happen in America." A son of a white lady from Kansas and a black man from Kenya. He's a Washington outsider who can bring hope and change to a broken system. His judgment is strong and that's more important than experience. He voted no on Iraq when everyone else was quick to pull the trigger. He's young, vibrant and articulate. With an unpopular war and a even less popular outgoing republican president, it's an appealing story.
There are flaws to each one though. With McCain, he's not very conservative. I know, you're probably screaming "McSame!" and "it's four more years of bush!", and that's fine -- just remember that the people who started those chants are the same folks who asked him to be the Democrat Vice President to John Kerry only four years ago. The fact that he was considered, has gone against the party on numerous issues, has his name all over McCain-Feingold -- these things don't sit well with the republican base.
With Obama, "Washington outsider" can quickly descend to lack of experience for anyone not a governor. Washington is a tricky place and the ability to navigate it is a skill acquired over time (partly the reason the term limit discussion was so quickly abandoned). His 'I'm change/hope over the existing structure' strikes people as egotistical. Number one reason for Hillary holdouts not supporting Obama? Ego. What series of ad's have been so successful for McCain lately? The ones that paint Obama as arrogant. Working class whites, the demo Obama has struggled the most with, are largely turned off by that sort of thing. Race is, I'm sure, an issue (and sadly), but let's not discredit his negatives.
The point of all this is that the VP selection strikes me as critical to solidifying the narratives and addressing negatives. McCain hasn't announced his pick yet, but of the three short list mentions - Ridge, Romney & Lieberman- I think Ridge and Lieberman fit his 'story' the best. The problem is that neither speak to his negatives (boils down to them being pro choice, ultimately). Romney, despite not being trusted by many social conservatives, represents the best chance and has a strong economic resume (he'd be the only executive in the entire race!)
Regarding the possible creation of a cross party ticket with Lieberman (admittedly, a very long shot) -- can you imagine watching the DNC keep a straight face while attacking the person who broke Kerry's heart by saying no to VP running with the 2000 Democrat VP candidate, and then try to say that they represent 'change from the usual politics' when they have to start blasting them with attack ads? Some how, I really am drawn to that scenario, which pretty much means it won't happen ;)
Obama announced his pick would be Joe Biden. Biden was born in Scranton, Penn and should help with working class whites (and fans of The Office... ahem). What's interesting to me is what will it do to the narrative? Joe Biden is supposedly the person who pushed for McCain to be the Dem VP pick last cycle, he voted for the Iraq war and he's a Washington establishment (30+ years in the senate).
It was Obama who said it's not experience that matters, it's judgment. He used that line repeatedly to beat Hillary in the Dem debates. He has now picked the Dem foreign policy guy who is a quintessential Washington insider to be on his ticket. It's an attempt to address the lack of experience critique, but by labeling Biden as the expert, doesn't that nullify many of the arguments he used against Hillary? If the person he thinks is the expert on foreign policy voted for the war, then.... who had the better judgment given what was known at the time? Keep in mind that Condi-Bush have been busy negotiating an Iraq withdrawal. The foreign policy aspects to all this may end up focusing more on Russia than Iraq.
It'll also be interesting to watch the 'change' mantra after picking someone so seasoned. Biden hasn't been without controversy. In fact, there's quite a bit of it. Obama may have just given the Republicans the ammunition the need to run the 2000/2004 playbook successfully. Biden's also going to have to be the attack dog against McCain -- someone who, even recently, he said would make a great president. Surely won't help silence those silly 'flip flop' chants. Biden also has a notoriously large ego -- I'm sure we'll all see the "I guarantee that my IQ is higher than yours" c-span clip at some point. Expect more ego ads in the near future.
His pro's shouldn't be ignored though. Biden brings a *ton* of experience to the table, and for a lot of people, that's a really important thing (myself included). He's catholic and popular in Penn, demo's that may very well become in play this cycle. He's also a straight talk kind of guy which really addresses the appeal that McCain has to a lot of independents. Who knows. Of the options, maybe he really was the best. I really thought it'd be Kaine until he started talking so much, then I thought Evan Bayh.
Obviously, the "right" VP pick is the one that helps you to win. It's August and far to early, and I mean.. what the heck do I know. We'll all see how Biden performs. The question of narrative should answer itself at the convention soon enough. I'm curious to watch.
For McCain, I think the VP pick is a whole lot tougher. He may not have the "coattails" to withstand a poor choice. Unless it's leaked, we'll have to wait until Friday after the DNC to know who it's going to be. My guess is Ridge.
